On April 3, The New York Times reported that the Eurasian Economic Commission, the supranational regulatory body of the Eurasian Economic Union, has decided to restrict exports of sunflower seeds, buckwheat, rice and rye from the member states of Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan until June 30. In addition, Ukraine, Viet Nam, Cambodia, and India have all imposed restrictions on food exports. Egypt will halt exports of legumes for three months to preserve local stocks.

Global Collaboration

Currently, an encouraging piece of news is that global cereal markets are expected to remain stable, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The total world cereal production for 2019 amounted to 2,721 million tons, an increase of 2.4 percent over the previous year. As a result of adequate supply, food prices declined 4.3 percent between February and March. Wheat price saw a moderate increase, while that of rice rose for three consecutive months due to high demand from the Middle East and Africa.

All countries should avoid export bans and ensure food can be transported, traded and marketed without restrictions. The World Trade Organization, the World Health Organization, FAO, the World Food Programme, the World Bank, and the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research should set up a working group to monitor prices, stocks, supply and demand, and trade not only at the global and national levels, but also at the local, regional and community levels. Local monitoring is critical as road blocks and restrictions on people’s movement can lead to food shortages in different areas.

Special programs must be developed and implemented to ensure poor and other vulnerable and disadvantaged groups such as children, the elderly, the disabled and unemployed rural migrants have access to nutritious food.

Finally, various multinational agencies and national governments must increase financial assistance, credit and tax rebates as part of the stimulus package for farmers and other actors in the whole value chain, so that food production, marketing, and trade can continue to flow during and after the emergency.

China’s Experience

China was the first country to combat COVID-19. Numerous government policies have been introduced to ensure food security during the epidemic.

China’s food production was strong in 2019, which provided a solid foundation for food supply. Grain output was 663 million tons, 0.9 percent more than the 2018 level. Currently, the stock of rice and wheat is high and can meet domestic demand for one year. Grain imports accounted for only 1-2 percent of domestic consumption in recent years. While China’s soybean demand is mainly met by imports, which stood at 88.5 million tons in 2019, the supply of soybeans from Brazil and the U.S., the two largest producers, is stable. There is no sign that the supply from these two countries will be disrupted by COVID-19.

In February, China’s consumer price index, a gauge of inflation, went up 5.2 percent year on year. But food prices surged 21.9 percent, largely due to pork price hikes triggered by the impacts of the African swine fever on hog production. On a month-on-month basis, national consumer prices rose 0.8 percent, while food prices increased 4.3 percent, led by an uptick in the prices of fresh vegetables and meat due to the outbreak of COVID-19.

Due to coronavirus lockdowns, the livestock and poultry sector was hit very hard in February. Many enterprises struggled with insufficient input, especially feed, and lack of access to markets. Worse still, many workers could not return to work after the Spring Festival holiday due to travel restrictions. According to industry estimates, the number of chicks and ducklings fell about 50 percent. Coupled with the impact of the African swine fever that is still ongoing, there will be a significant gap between meat supply and demand.

Vegetable production was also affected. A survey by the China Agricultural Policy Research Center of Peking University showed that 24 percent of vegetable farmers saw a drop in production due to the outbreak, with an average decline of one third.

The epidemic will also have an impact on the production of major crops such as grain, cotton, edible oil, and sugarcane, as it made it difficult to purchase seeds, fertilizer, pesticides, and other inputs needed for spring planting. According to the China Seed Association, the outbreak has adversely affected the production and operation of more than 90 percent of seed enterprises.

On January 30, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA), the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Public Security jointly issued a notice prohibiting unauthorized interception, roadblocks, and disruption of transportation of agricultural inputs and outputs.

A MARA document on February 10 specified incentives for farmers to start farming with necessary disease prevention and other measures to support agricultural production.

To encourage food imports to ease the pressure on food supply, the General Administration of Customs of China announced on February 16 that more countries and companies would be allowed to export agricultural and food products to China. The administration also pledged to speed up customs clearance, shorten the quarantine and review period, and open green channels for agricultural products at key ports.

With all these policies and measures in place, it is expected that China’s food supply in 2020 will remain stable, although meat prices are likely to remain under pressure due to the impacts of the epidemic on the livestock sector. Securing imports of soybeans and meat will be key to avoiding further spikes in domestic meat prices.